Nate Silver Cools Off Climate Change Denialists


Oh yeah, Newsweek? Nate Silvers got $25 that says you're full of it.
  • Oh yeah, Newsweek? Nate Silvers got $25 that says you're full of it.
Rockstar statistician Nate Silver has thrown down the gauntlet. Responding to a conservative Minnesota blogger who used a few cool days in July to extrapolate that Al Gore must be full of shit, Silver has issued a challenge:
1. For each day that the high temperature in your hometown is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above average, as listed by Weather Underground, you owe me $25. For each day that it is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit below average, I owe you $25. 2. The challenge proceeds in monthly intervals, with the first month being August. At the end of each month, we'll tally up the winning and losing days and the loser writes the winner a check for the balance. 3. The challenge automatically rolls over to the next month until/unless: (i) one party informs the other by the 20th of the previous month that he would like to discontinue the challenge (that is, if you want to discontinue the challenge for September, you'd have to tell me this by August 20th), or (ii) the losing party has failed to pay the winning party in a timely fashion, in which case the challenge may be canceled at the sole discretion of the winning party.
Silver's attempt to introduce accountability into the climate change debate is, ahem, a breath of (cold) fresh air. Even though I'd argue that the flat-earthers make this mistake more often, both sides of the global warming debate are guilty of using small sample-sizes (like one cool weekend in July or one scorcher in April) to make the case for their side. And, in almost every case, they all come off sounding like uneducated assholes. To that effect, it may come as no surprise that, two days out, Silver has no takers.

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