Good column (as usual) this week by Channel 5 analyst Pat Nolan
, who offers an explanation for Gentry's high numbers in The City Paper
poll: "One of the recently released media polls (SURVEY USA/CITY PAPER) showed Gentry in a surprisingly strong position to possibly make the runoff. Maybe that's why he made the recent large personal contribution to his campaign. But as those who did the poll pointed out, Gentry's recent poll numbers are due largely to how the SURVEY USA poll is weighted. It's based on minority turnout being 20 percent or one out of every five voters. Usually minority turnout is about 12 percent to 15 percent in local races, although it was quite a bit higher last November with Harold Ford, Jr. making his race for the U.S. Senate. That's apparently why SURVEY USA did the poll at that higher level of black voter turnout."
As the Scene
has reported, Gentry isn't doing as well in any of the campaigns' internal polls. But it's all about turnout, isn't it? Maybe Gentry's candidacy has energized blacks to turn out in numbers equaling Ford's vote.